Northern Ireland is approaching a key demographic turning point, with official figures predicting pensioners will exceed children within the next year.
Key Takeaways:
-
By summer of 2027, the number of pensioners in Northern Ireland are expected to outnumber children.
-
Deaths are predicted to outnumber births by 2030.
-
Government leaders are warning of the consequences to health care, social services, schools, and more.
Based on recent population figures for NI, released by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), the over-65 population will surpass the number of children in NI by mid-2027. By 2030, the number of deaths will outnumber births. NI’s overall population is expected to hit its zenith at 1.94 million in mid-2031 before retreating into long-term decline, decreasing to 1.91 million by 2049.
Observers have cautioned that the real concern for policymakers is not the overall decline itself, but the specific age groups most impacted by the decrease.
The over-65 population is expected to grow by 44.7% over the next quarter century; simultaneously, those over age 85 are expected to more than double, rising from 42,900 to 96,900. Projections also reveal both the steepest decline in NI’s child population — down 23.8% — and the most significant growth in the pension-age population, which is predicted to increase 32.2%, the highest in the United Kingdom (UK).