All over the world, there is increasing alarm over the ageing and falling populations of developed nations. Demographers, economists and now even some far-sighted politicians are becoming increaisingly worried about the looming "demographic winter". Various countries, including Hungary, Russia, Japan and South Korea, are experimenting with various incentives to encourage women to have more children, with varied degrees of success.
The latest statistics out of the USA, however, tell us that one measure has a rapid and certain impact: Resitricting or banning abortion leads to more children being born. It's not exactly rocket science, but the reluctance of mainstream media and decision-makers to admit this simple fact makes it important to look at the reality.
Abortion bans allowed to take effect after Roe v. Wade’s 2022 reversal increased anticipated birth rates by 2.8 percent in the affected states, according to a new study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
“We use difference-in-differences research designs to estimate the effects of abortion bans on births at the county level, leveraging data on changes in driving distance and appointment availability at the nearest facility where abortion remains legal,” explains the paper. “We find that bans alone increase births, but their total impact depends on geographic barriers to access.”
That includes a one-percent increase even in places where distance to facilities with available appointments remained unchanged, which the authors attribute to “legal uncertainty, misinformation, or logistical hurdles.”
But most significant was that in “counties where the nearest abortion facility was 50 miles away pre-Dobbs, a total ban increases births by 2.8% when distance rises to 300 miles.” Further, this effect has not diminished even in the time since pro-abortion activists have “expanded logistical, financial, and telehealth abortion support” to compensate, according to the authors.
“By the end of 2022, 13 states—Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, and Wisconsin—were enforcing near-total bans on abortions with very limited exceptions,” the study explains. “In addition, 13 states that were not enforcing total abortion bans had restrictive abortion policies and were categorized as ‘hostile’ by organizations such as the Guttmacher Institute (2025) and Center for Reproductive Rights (2025).”
While tracking abortion numbers can be unreliable due to things like cross-state telehealth abortions causing undercounting, “Births data do not suffer any such measurement challenges,” the authors continue. “Using natality files from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS, 2024) […] we obtain highly accurate counts of state resident births. Despite concerns about abortion undercounting, birth data confirm that ban states saw real fertility effects.”
“It really tracks, both that women who are poorer and younger and have less education are more likely to have an unintended pregnancy, and more likely to be unable to overcome the barriers to abortion,” pro-abortion Ohio State epidemiology professor Dr. Alison Norris told the New York Times.
“We obviously are seeing the evidence that the bans are actually preventing abortions,” said Texas Right to Life president John Seago, who added that America still needs a national abortion ban and states like Texas must take action to prevent residents from obtaining out-of-state abortions. In the meantime, however, he celebrated that current restrictions are “actually saving lives.”
The long and vital campaign to thaw the demographic winter must include all sorts of measures, including financial incentives for parents and ways to ease the preesures which force women into work other than being full-time mothers. But one on them, critically, must be the struggle to end abortion.